Episode 273: How to Make Money From World Conflicts

by robbooker on July 21, 2014

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Buckle up! Episode 273 starts off a little wildly and politically charged as your host Rob Booker asks Jason the producer if he would assassinate Adolf Hitler in 1942, if he had the chance. This is a preface for discussing the unrest that’s taking place with the Ukraine and Gaza. And this topic is actually a preface for discussing the world markets and how news can affect (or not affect) trading — and more importantly — how you can make money from the conflicts. Thanks for listening.

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{ 4 comments… read them below or add one }

BrianF July 22, 2014 at 7:13 pm

Traders lose because they think they know the game and can kill Hitler.

The process of learning the trading game is a process of being humiliated and learning that your assumptions were wrong, and you’ve spent all your time, money, and effort becoming an expert at what doesn’t work.

I don’t want to repeat that mistake and go back in time and kill Hitler.
It wasn’t Hitler that killed 100 million people in the 20th century, it was Mao and Stalin. Good or bad, removing Hitler from history would remove a check on their power, and might have enabled them to kill 200 million. The obvious answer is usually wrong, and the problem is trading is full of obvious answers.

I won’t get into why, but people are easily misled. Most of what we read is propaganda. Add to that, most traders are losers. Therefore, most trading books are written to satisfy the cravings of losers because their purchases dominate the market (Rob taught me that dirty little secret in the cast on publishing). History books are no different. The manipulated crave what causes them to lose.

My traders’ mind rebelled at the idea of killing Hitler. Everyone would go back in time and kill Hitler. Good for them but that’s why they lose, they are preconditioned to do what everyone else does. There’s no profit in killing Hitler. If you do what everyone else does, in your personal life or in your trading life, you will get the same result as everyone else. (Caveat, because there’s always a caveat in trading, sometimes it’s profitable to follow the crowd and stone Hitler, but don’t make a habit of it.)

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BrianF July 22, 2014 at 8:38 pm

Now THAT was reaching, but there’s wasn’t a lot for me in this one.

I think I’ve become just a little too enigmatic, like The Sphinx in Mystery Men:

Mr. Furious: Okay, am I the only one who finds these sayings just a little bit formulaic? “If you want to push something down, you have to pull it up. If you want to go left, you have to go right.” It’s…

The Sphinx: Your temper is very quick, my friend. But until you learn to master your rage…
Mr. Furious: …your rage will become your master? That’s what you were going to say. Right? Right?

The Sphinx: Not necessarily.

OK, I will STFU now

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Matt LaCoco July 23, 2014 at 3:06 am

Ahh, Brian… I love you’re comments man. This time, you bring to mind one of my favorite Zen sayings… One that has enabled me to push through some of my biggest idiot-spells, one that has saved me my account 100 times over:

“It is clear and so it is hard to see. A dunce once searched for a fire with a lighted lantern. Had he known what fire was, he could have cooked his rice much sooner.”

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Brian F. July 24, 2014 at 1:57 pm

Story of my life, I want to argue trading and you quote Master Po. (That’s from Kung Fu for all you younsters).

That was either a compliment, or a flame, (the dreaded LaCococrisp?) 🙂

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